Alea jacta est

Há quatros anos, desenvolvi este modelo da copa do mundo com dois objetivos: (i) ensinar ao estagiário como construir uma simulação de Monte Carlo usando o pacote estatístico R, e (ii) adquirir um nível de conhecimento compatível com o senso geral sobre a copa do mundo e como ela iria se desenrolar para ao menos […]

The World Cup as a flow map

A Flow Map/Sankey Diagram showing the complete results from the World Cup model: The chart has alternating nodes (blue bars) for teams and matches. Size of flows are proportional to the chances of a country being part of a match (from country to match bar) or proportional to the chances of winning a match (from […]

Will Germany win the world cup?

In a previous post, I showed results from a model that gives a 23 percent change of victory for Germany in this year’s World Cup. It is the highest score. So, can I jump and say that Germany will win it, or worse yet, can I bet my savings that it will do so? Short […]

What do you tell me about the world cup?

I do not care for football (soccer). So what do you do in order not to be totally alienated from the surrounding conversations in a world cup year?  More so when the cup is happening in your home country? To me it involves running some R script to assess the chances for each team and […]